December 2012
1 post
Evaluating Outfielders’ Defense Using Fieldf/x
While I’m sure that teams have already begun analyzing Fieldf/x data, I wanted to draw up a concept for evaluating outfield defense using Fieldf/x data. The two main defensive responsibilities of an outfielder are preventing runners from advancing on fly balls and converting fly balls into outs. Fieldf/x data can help us determine how well outfielders are accomplishing these objectives by looking...
April 2012
7 posts
2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation [Part III]
Chris Volstad | Can Volstad handle left-handed hitters?
In his career, Volstad has had trouble pitching to left-handed hitters. The trouble primarily comes from Volstad’s inability to keep left-handed hitters from hitting the ball out of the park and taking walks. In 2011, he gave up 2.16 HR/9 and posted a 3.86 BB/9 against lefties. Against righties, Volstad gave up 0.42 HR/9 and posted a...
2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation [Part II]
Paul Maholm | Will the Cubs infield defense be good enough to convert Maholm’s ground balls into outs?
In my post about Maholm a few months ago I mentioned my concern with his declining swinging strike rate, and the subsequent increase in his contact rates. Higher contact rates will result in a greater number of balls in play, and will make Maholm’s results even more dependent on his...
2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation [Part I]
Matt Garza | Has Garza become a more efficient pitcher? Does he throw fewer pitches per inning?
During the Cubs vs. Rockies broadcast, Keith brought up the fact that Garza needs to cut down on his pitches per inning in order to provide more innings for the Cubs. I recalled Garza going deeper in games during the last month of the season, and wanted to see if he had become more efficient near the...
2012 Cubs Preview: Outfield
Right Field: David DeJesus | Is DeJesus our best lead-off option?
According to The Book, the optimal lead-off hitter (i) has a high OBP, (iii) should be one of the team’s three best hitters, and (iii) should have little power. Let’s see if DeJesus fits this mold.
High OBP
DeJesus sports a career .356 OBP - the highest of any current Cubs hitter. According to ZiPS, here are the three...
2012 Cubs Preview: Corner Infield
First Base: Bryan LaHair | Is Bryan LaHair a Quad-A player?
Al recently put a good story together on this, but I figured we’d use some analytical tools to determine whether or not he has shown signs of being a Quad-A player.
The skill that differentiates Quad-A players from major league players is their ability - or inability in this case - to hit breaking pitches. Quad-A players face a lot...
2012 Cubs Preview: Middle Infield
Catcher: Geovany Soto | Soto’s 2009 season was hampered by a low BABIP, was this what plagued him in 2011 too?
In 2009, Soto posted a .246 BABIP - the 13th lowest in the majors - well below the league average BABIP of .299. As we can see from the chart below, the slope of his BABIP decline from ‘08 to ‘09 is steeper than the slope of his wOBA decline during the same period of...
Cubs 2012 Season Preview
I put together some player previews over at Bleed Cubbie Blue. When I initially thought about constructing player projections, I quickly realized that there were other projections that were far better than anything I could produce, and that we were all likely projectioned-out anyway. That said, I decided to address one meaningful question regarding each Cubs player in advance of the upcoming...
January 2012
9 posts
Value of Various Plate Approaches
Analysts and commentators frequently rave about a player’s ability to hit to the opposite-field. Extreme pull-hitters are often knocked by many fans who consider hitting to the opposite field a key indicator of a great hitter. However, some of the best hitters in the game - Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist, Carlos Beltran, Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Ken Griffey Jr. - could be...
A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Cubs
fungraphs:
Doesn’t look like they have all that depth in the higher levels of the minors.
Really neat look at the Cubs’ Window to Win. Great work as usual by Dave at FUNGraphs.
WAR Walk Through: Ben Zobrist
As I mentioned in my recent post on Wins Above Replacement, I will be walking through the calculation of a specific player’s WAR in this post. The player that I will use as an example is Ben Zobrist, not only because I’m a big fan of his, but also because he’s a good example to run this calculation on.
I will mirror the format of the aforementioned WAR post in order to make the...
Evaluating General Managers
My younger brother came up with the following concepts – I just filled in the logical gaps.
Winning in baseball is about optimization and efficiency. Sure, you could go out and spend $23 million a year on Prince Fielder - he posted 5.5 WAR, which was valued at $24.6 million in 2011 - but would he bring back any excess value on a 6-year contract? Probably not.
Why is excess value important? Well,...
The Best and Worst Men on Base Splits of 2011
While I was surfing the FanGraphs leaderboards, I stumbled upon the splits section which allows you to view a player’s performance based on certain situations. I flipped through a couple of splits until I came to these three: Bases Empty, Men on Base, and Men in Scoring Position. Now I know that it has been proven a few times - most notably in Baseball Between the Numbers - that there is no...
Stat of the Week: WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
In the past two weeks, we looked at two offensive statistics that evaluate a player’s overall offensive contribution, wOBA and wRC+. This week, we will attempt to evaluate a player’s entire contribution - including a position player’s offensive and defensive value, and a pitcher’s run prevention value. This will be a two-part series: one part will be dedicated to position...
A Look at Paul Maholm
I wrote the following piece for Bleed Cubbie Blue - a Chicago Cubs blog. I’ve posted it here in order to keep all of my work in one place.
Paul Maholm is the latest in a long list of acquisitions made by TheoJed. Maholm, now 29, was selected by the Pirates with the 8th overall pick in the 2003 draft.
Since 2006 - his first full big league season - Maholm has averaged 183.7 IP per season, which...
A Look at Chris Volstad
I wrote the following piece for Bleed Cubbie Blue - a Chicago Cubs blog. I’ve posted it here in order to keep all of my work in one place.
Chris Volstad, who just turned 25 at the end of this past season, was drafted out of high school with the 16th pick in the 2005 draft. In 2006, he was named the Marlins’ #1 prospect by Baseball America, and just cracked the Top 100 prospects list - he...
December 2011
13 posts
Team Composition of World Series Winners
As I was flipping through a friend’s copy of Flip Flop Fly Ball, I came across a very interesting infographic titled “World Series Winners: How the Players Were Acquired, 2000 - 2010.” It essentially color coded the players on each of the World Series winning teams according to the way that they were acquired. I found this fascinating, and decided to convert the infographic into...
Playing with a Decade's Worth of Line Scores
I downloaded the line scores all of the games that were played between 2000 and 2010. I removed all of the extra inning games, and games that contained innings of 10 or more runs from consideration because of the difficulty in working with them in Excel. Fortunately, that still left me with 24371 games.
At first, I was interested in quantifying home-field advantage, which is a relatively simple...
Stat of the Week: wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created...
Last week, we took a look at Weighted On-Base Average, wOBA, which represents a player’s total offensive value in the form of a percentage. This week, we will attempt to both index a player’s total offensive value to the league average and adjust it for ballpark factors with Weighted Runs Created plus, or wRC+.
wRC+ was created in response to OPS+, which measures On-Base plus Slugging...
Potentially Valuable Non-Tendered Players:...
Here’s the first half of the list of intriguing non-tendered pitchers. I will look at the rest of the list in the next post.
Jo-Jo Reyes
This past year, Reyes finished his best season in the majors; unfortunately for him, it only resulted in a 0.7 WAR backed by a 4.90 FIP and 4.58 xFIP. According to 2010 league-wide FIP values, Reyes’s FIP would rank in the 10th percentile of all...
Jose Reyes's Contract: Net Present Value and...
Jose Reyes signed a six year, $105 million contract with the Miami Marlins a little under two weeks ago. While Reyes is an elite player, with essentially four 6 WAR seasons in the past six years, his proclivity for injury is a glaring concern. Since 2005, his first full season in the majors, Reyes has played 928 games and missed 206 games - he played in 81.8 percent of the Mets’ games during...
Stat of the Week: wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)
Traditional offensive metrics - Batting Average (BA), On-Base Percentage (OBP), and Slugging Percentage (SLG) - all have certain deficiencies: Batting Average does not incorporate walks, On-Base Percentage does not differentiate between offensive outcomes, and Slugging Percentage incorrectly weights the different offensive outcomes.
In order to incorporate walks and differentiate between offensive...
Potentially Valuable Non-Tendered Players:...
I would like to take a look at the more promising lot of non-tendered players to see what they could provide in 2012. I look at position players in this post and pitchers in the next post.
Jeff Keppinger
He has put together a couple of good seasons in his career. In 2007, he accumulated 2.4 WAR in only 276 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the closest he got to that level of production was his...
Stat of the Week Posts
I will be looking at common sabermetric statistics on a weekly basis and summarizing the math and logic behind each of them. I hope to not only help readers understand these statistics, but also to develop a deeper understanding of these statistics myself. As Frank Oppenheimer put it, “the best way to learn is to teach.”
A Look at Ian Stewart, and a 3B Platoon
I wrote the following piece for Bleed Cubbie Blue - a Chicago Cubs blog. I’ve posted it here in order to keep all of my work in one place.
Ian Stewart has been an enigma. In 2004 Baseball America ranked Stewart the fourth best prospect in baseball behind Delmon Young,Felix Hernandez, and Joe Mauer. In 2011, Stewart managed a 13 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances; in other words, his offense was 87...
A Graphic Look at Replacing Runs in FA: Chicago...
Very neat representation of the players the Cubs need to replace, and how they can go about doing that courtesy of David Fung.
fungraphs:
The signings of David DeJesus and Ian Stewart has helped fill the holes at 3B and OF, but how else can the Cubs replace run production lost to FA?
As seen on Beyond the Box Score.
Is Casey McGehee a bounce-back candidate?
According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio recently “called arbitration eligible third baseman Casey McGehee a bounce-back candidate, indicating that the Brewers will tender him a contract.” Let’s find out if McGehee is a bounce-back candidate.
After a very brief stint with the Cubs in 2008, Casey McGehee got his first real chance in the majors in 2009....
A Look at David DeJesus
I wrote the following piece for Bleed Cubbie Blue - a Chicago Cubs blog. I’ve posted it here in order to keep all of my work in one place.
David DeJesus has played eight seasons in the American League. Offensively, according to wRC+, he has produced above average in four seasons, and average or below average in the other four seasons. Much of DeJesus’s offensive value comes from his...
Ron Santo: A Look at the Numbers
I wrote this for Bleed Cubbie Blue - a Chicago Cubs blog.
Congratulations, Ron; you deserve it.
November 2011
3 posts
World Series Television Ratings
After reading my recent post about World Series competitiveness, a friend of mine brought up the recent slide in World Series viewership. I thought it would be interesting to look into this, so I did; below are my findings.
As we can see, viewership has been on the decline for the past eleven years - aside from 2004 and 2009. 2004 and 2009 were years in which the Yankees and the Red Sox played in...
Plate Discipline Trends Explain Lower League-Wide...
Since 2004, batters have been seeing fewer and fewer pitches in the strike zone. According to Zone% - which indicates the overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone - the average percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone has fallen from 55.1% in 2004, to 45.3% in 2011 - a 17.7% decline in pitches seen inside the strike zone.
Hitters have adapted; according to...
World Series Competitiveness
This year’s World Series has been referred to by many as one of the best World Series in recent memory. While the claim was pretty apparent to anyone who watched it, it led me to consider the competitiveness of recent World Series. In order to get a historical perspective, I began by looking at the average number of games played within each World Series by decade over the past 100+...
October 2011
2 posts
Hamilton and the Rangers' Postseason Lineup
After reading Dave Cameron’s article about Josh Hamilton hitting third, I ran a few lineup simulations to see how much of an effect Hamilton hitting third was having on the lineup.
Here are the lineups* that I evaluated:
The table below compares the six different lineups in terms of runs per game relative to each other. A positive value indicates that the lineup on the left-hand axis is...
September 2011
1 post
The Weakest Division in Baseball
As a Cubs fan, I have heard time and again that the National League Central Division is the weakest division in baseball. A couple days ago I realized that I could (i) find out if that’s true, and (ii) find out by how much better the five other divisions are. So I set about doing that to the best of my ability.
I compiled the NL Central standings from the past ten years, 2001 - 2010. I then...
August 2011
2 posts
Garza Reinventing Himself in Chicago
Matt Garza has pitched essentially a year for the Cubs, and while some were concerned about his reliance on four-seam fastballs and how his fly ball tendencies would play out at Wrigley, he has pitched exceptionally well. Take a look at Garza’s statistics from the past two years:
2010: 6.60 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.42 FIP
2011: 9.32 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 3.06 FIP
...
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